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The historical death toll from heatwaves in Australia is larger than that of all other natural disasters put together and yet the community is lacking the tools to both define and communicate the risk associated with such extreme events.

The Bureau of Meteorology recently designed the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) as a metric to homogenise the definition of heatwaves and help quantify their impact. Risk Frontiers has built on this metric to develop a methodology that links the EHF and historical records of human fatalities.

Using this methodology, Risk Frontiers is able to:

  • define heatwave risk categories with regards to potential loss of human life. These categories can help communicate risk levels with local communities in the same way tropical cyclone or bushfire categories have been used in the past
  • quantify the likely death toll from the population exposed to each of these categories in order to help understand the likely impact from individual heatwave events.

Risk Frontiers can generate realistic synthetic events along with maps of heatwave risk and projected human fatalities. Combined with a Monte Carlo simulation framework, Risk Frontiers can also develop large stochastic event sets that prove a view of risk going well beyond simple analysis of observed historical events.

Please contact us for further information on how Risk Frontiers can help with risk modelling of heatwaves.