Tropical cyclones are a regular threat to Australia, with an average of 11 cyclones developing over Australian waters each year and around 4 of these crossing the coast. The official tropical cyclone season runs from November 1st to April 30th, potentially impacting more than two thirds of Australian coastlines.
CyclAUS builds on 16 years of development consisting of 3 modelling modules: genesis, tracking and wind modeling. Each component has been carefully calibrated against the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone database. The model domain extends 600 km from the coast of Australia covering all tropical cyclone affected areas.
CyclAUS simulates a unique event set of more than 300,000 tropical cyclones over 50,000 years Tropical cyclones are generated in the genesis module on genesis gates or in genesis cells around Australia. The tracking module then models the cyclone’s path by propagating the storm within the model domain and varying its intensity. Finally, maximum open and local wind gust (10s) speeds are calculated in the wind modelling module for each unique path, every 15 minutes, at the centroids of an orthogonal Variable Resolution Grid (VRG) refined with increasing exposure and proximity to the coastline.
Translating wind hazard into loss is done through a combination of vulnerability curves for specific building types, height, age and location, allowing location level intelligence. Vulnerability models were empirically derived from historical Australian insurance claims data.
In recent years, Australia has experienced a number of severe tropical cyclone landfalls with devastating consequences. According to the Insurance Council of Australia, 3 of the top 10 most costly natural disasters were tropical cyclones, including cyclone Debbie (2017), cyclone Yasi (2011) and cyclone Tracy (1974) each resulting in multi-billion-dollar insured losses. In the context of climate change, tropical cyclones will continue to threaten Australian communities. Warming ocean temperatures will increase the severity of cyclones and extend their path further south, where larger Australian coastal communities are located.
CyclAUS boasts an extremely high spatial resolution, able to resolve the steep gradients in wind speed as cyclones move inland as well as the local terrain conditions. The wind speed is calculated every 15 minutes at the centroids of an Variable Resolution Grid (VRG) refined with increasing exposure and proximity to the coastline.
CyclAUS was developed using more than 50 years of historical cyclone tracks impacting Australia provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. This ensures that tropical cyclone risk output is representative of the characteristics of Australian cyclones which are very different to other parts of the world.
Risk Frontiers has a suite of flood vulnerability functions which are used to determine the damage from a riverine flood event. These detailed curves use empirical curves and insurance claims data to best represent the insured loss. There are vulnerability functions for different lines of business, building types, and building, contents or business interruption covers.
Our CAT loss models, trusted by leading insurers and financial institutions, provide cutting-edge probabilistic assessments of financial risks from extreme events. Integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data, these models offer a robust foundation for informed decision-making.
Since 2019, Risk Frontiers has pioneered climate-enabled CAT models, allowing clients to project future risks under various emissions scenarios with scientifically validated methodologies. Backed by over 30 years of research and partnerships with regulatory bodies, our models are a key tool in climate risk resilience and financial planning.
Enhancing risk pricing and underwriting strategies.
Assessing exposure in lending and investment portfolios.
Informing policy and disaster resilience planning.
Evaluating asset vulnerabilities and future risk exposure.
Variable resolution, down to 90m
Location Address Level
50,000 years of stochastic tropical cyclones
Local gust wind speed at 10m elevation (3s average), wind regions, building age, building height.
Residential / Commercial / Industrial
Residential ALE / Commercial / Industrial
All Properties on mainland Australia and Tasmania. 100% GNAF / Geoscape / Geovision
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In the spirit of reconciliation, Risk Frontiers acknowledges the Traditional Custodians of the land throughout Australia and their deep connections to land, sea, and community. We pay our respects to their Elders, past and present, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples today.
