New Zealand is subjected to significant levels of seismic hazard and seismic risk because of its location on the plate boundary between the Australian and Pacific Plates.
It is currently experencing a phase of elevated seismic activity, which began with the occurrence in 2010 of the magnitude 7.0 Darfield earthquake, soon followed in 2011 by the much smaller magnitude 6.2 earthquake which was nevertheless much more damaging because it occurred directly beneath Christchurch; the total economic loss of this earthquake sequence is estimated to have been $NZ 40B. Since then, a much larger earthquake, the magnitude 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake, occurred in the region between Christchurch and Wellington in 2016.
QuakeNZ is a national earthquake model for New Zealand. It implements an earthquake forecast model for crustal, slab and subduction interface earthquakes, and uses a ground motion prediction model for all three of these earthquake source categories. Ground motion amplification uses a New Zealand-wide soil site classification. Damage is calculated using the full building response spectrum for residential, commercial and industrial property. In addition to calculating losses from earthquake shaking, it also calculates losses from soil liquefaction.
QuakeNZ incorporates data from GNS Science’s National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM12), It implements the earthquake forecast model for crustal, slab and subduction interface earthquakes in NSHM12, which includes a spatially distributed seismicity model and a set of potentially active faults.
Using a 50,000 year event set within a Monte Carlo simulation framework, RF’s QuakeNZ2 calculates Probable Maximum Losses (PML) as a function of Average Return Interval (ARI) or Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) throughout New Zealand.
In recent years, Australia has experienced a number of severe tropical cyclone landfalls with devastating consequences. According to the Insurance Council of Australia, 3 of the top 10 most costly natural disasters were tropical cyclones, including cyclone Debbie (2017), cyclone Yasi (2011) and cyclone Tracy (1974) each resulting in multi-billion-dollar insured losses. In the context of climate change, tropical cyclones will continue to threaten Australian communities. Warming ocean temperatures will increase the severity of cyclones and extend their path further south, where larger Australian coastal communities are located.
A liquefaction potential hazard map using inputs from high resolution GIS data is used to classify exposure based on a HAZUS methodology calibrated to the Christchurch experience.
To estimate losses, QuakeNZ uses the capacity spectrum method, with fragility curves that are derived from building-specific capacity curves for a wide range of NZ building construction types and vintages, and from event-and-site-specific broadband response spectra.
The financial module can take into account NZ specific requirements such as the Earthquake Commission deductibles and the calculation of regulatory probable maximum losses.
Our CAT loss models, trusted by leading insurers and financial institutions, provide cutting-edge probabilistic assessments of financial risks from extreme events. Integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data, these models offer a robust foundation for informed decision-making.
Since 2019, Risk Frontiers has pioneered climate-enabled CAT models, allowing clients to project future risks under various emissions scenarios with scientifically validated methodologies. Backed by over 30 years of research and partnerships with regulatory bodies, our models are a key tool in climate risk resilience and financial planning.
QuakeNZ was developed by Australian seismologists and engineers who frequently visit New Zealand, especially after damaging earthquakes, and are familiar with local conditions in New Zealand.
Risk Frontiers personnel have firsthand experience with major earthquake events, offering valuable insights into lifeline interdependencies critical for effective emergency response planning.
Risk Frontiers is familiar with the utility systems that operate in New Zealand and can obtain scenario-based estimates of losses from events that impact distributed utility systems.
Variable resolution, down to 500m
High resolution source GIS data down to 16m
Location Address Level
50,000 years of stochastic earthquakes
Location, full acceleration demand spectrum, soil type, building construction type, building age, building height.
Residential / Commercial / Industrial
Commercial / Industrial
All Properties on mainland New Zealand
Global earthquake detection and warning using Android phones As noted by Allen et al....
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In the spirit of reconciliation, Risk Frontiers acknowledges the Traditional Custodians of the land throughout Australia and their deep connections to land, sea, and community. We pay our respects to their Elders, past and present, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples today.
