Earthquakes in Australia can strike without any prior warning, posing a serious risk of causing loss of life and significant structural damage.
Most of Australia’s largest earthquakes, with magnitudes of 5.6 or higher, have occurred in less populated, remote, or offshore areas, resulting in minimal damage. However, significant destruction was caused by two notable exceptions: the 1968 Meckering earthquake and the 1979 Cadoux earthquake, both of which occurred in densely populated areas. Interestingly, the smaller earthquakes have historically led to more damage across Australia. This is because they are more frequent and tend to occur in areas with higher population densities.
Remarkably, two relatively minor earthquakes, the 1989 Newcastle earthquake with a magnitude of 5.42 and the 1994 Ellalong earthquake with a magnitude of 4.71, account for about 90% of all earthquake-related losses in Australia, despite the Newcastle earthquake being only the 16th largest in the country’s recorded history.
Most of Australia’s capital cities, such as Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth, and Darwin, have higher seismic hazard levels than the rest of the country due to their proximity to potentially active geological faults.
QuakeAUS is a national earthquake model for Australia. It uses an earthquake forecast derived from a spatially smoothed distribution of historical seismicity, and a ground motion prediction model developed specifically for Australia. Ground motion amplification uses an Australia-wide soil site classification. Damage is calculated using the full building response spectrum for residential, commercial and industrial property. In addition to calculating losses from earthquake shaking, it also calculates losses from soil liquefaction.
QuakeAUS incorporates data from Geoscience Australia’s National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18), including revision of the earthquake magnitudes in the Australian Earthquake Catalogue, and the spatially smoothed seismicity model is derived from this catalogue. It also contains a set of active faults derived from the NSHA18 National Fault Source Model, and uses information from NSHA18 to model soil classification and amplification.
Using a 15,000 year event set within a Monte Carlo simulation framework, RF’s QuakeAUS5 calculates Probable Maximum Losses (PML) as a function of Average Return Interval (ARI) or Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) throughout Australia. The model handles residential, commercial and industrial portfolios and calculates building, contents and business interruption losses.
In recent years, Australia has experienced a number of severe tropical cyclone landfalls with devastating consequences. According to the Insurance Council of Australia, 3 of the top 10 most costly natural disasters were tropical cyclones, including cyclone Debbie (2017), cyclone Yasi (2011) and cyclone Tracy (1974) each resulting in multi-billion-dollar insured losses. In the context of climate change, tropical cyclones will continue to threaten Australian communities. Warming ocean temperatures will increase the severity of cyclones and extend their path further south, where larger Australian coastal communities are located.
Risk Frontiers staff developed a spatially distributed earthquake source model for Australia,and Risk Frontiers staff participated in the development of the Somerville et al. (2009) ground motion prediction models with are specifically for Australia.
Risk Frontiers staff contributed to Geoscience Australia’s NSHA18, incorporating their earthquake source model and Somerville et al.’s (2009) ground motion predictions, while participating in expert elicitation for model selection.
To estimate losses, QuakeAUS uses the capacity spectrum method, with fragility curves that are derived from building-specific capacity curves for a wide range of building construction types and vintages, and from event-and-site-specific broadband response spectra.
Our CAT loss models, trusted by leading insurers and financial institutions, provide cutting-edge probabilistic assessments of financial risks from extreme events. Integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data, these models offer a robust foundation for informed decision-making.
Since 2019, Risk Frontiers has pioneered climate-enabled CAT models, allowing clients to project future risks under various emissions scenarios with scientifically validated methodologies. Backed by over 30 years of research and partnerships with regulatory bodies, our models are a key tool in climate risk resilience and financial planning.
QuakeAUS can calculate earthquake catastrophe risk based loss estimates for property exposure providing valuable insight into whole of portfolio analysis and informing risk based pricing.
Risk Frontiers personnel have first hand experience with major earthquake events, offering valuable insights into lifeline interdependencies critical for effective emergency response planning.
Risk Frontiers is familiar with the utility systems that operate in Australia and can obtain scenario-based estimates of losses from events that impact distributed utility systems.
Variable resolution grid, down to 1.6km
Location Address Level
50,000 years of stochastic earthquakes
Location, full acceleration demand spectrum, soil type, building construction type, building age, building height.
Residential / Commercial / Industrial
Residential ALE / Commercial BI / Industrial BI
All Properties on mainland Australia and Tasmania.
100% GNAF
Global earthquake detection and warning using Android phones As noted by Allen et al....
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In the spirit of reconciliation, Risk Frontiers acknowledges the Traditional Custodians of the land throughout Australia and their deep connections to land, sea, and community. We pay our respects to their Elders, past and present, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples today.
