Riverine flooding is one of the most costly perils in Australia. The 2023 normalisation of the Insurance Council of Australia Disaster Loss list has riverine flooding contributing over 22% of the loss for natural disasters in Australia. The National Flood Information Database (NFID) shows that over one million addresses have some level of flood risk in Australia.
With climate change the risk from riverine flooding is likely to exacerbate. The frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events are expected to increase, leading to more frequent and severe flooding. This will have a significant impact on property values and insurance premiums, as well as the cost of rebuilding after a flood.
Risk Frontiers’ riverine flood model, FloodAUS, provides high resolution riverine flood modelling and data to determine the return period of floodwater depth at individual addresses in Australia for over 500,000 unique simulated events. Building on our recognised expertise in developing and managing the National Flood Information Database (NFID) for the Insurance Council of Australia, peer reviewed research and on-the-ground post-event surveys, FloodAUS 4.0 has national coverage for modelling the impact of floods on property and businesses.
FloodAUS is Risk Frontiers’ riverine flood loss model for Australian property exposures that incorporates the latest flood studies, research and expertise.
It is a probabilistic loss model which incorporates high resolution flood modelling and data to represent the hazard as the average annual probability of floodwater depth at individual addresses in hazard as the average annual probability of floodwater depth at individual addresses in Australia. The data source for the hazard is the NFID, which is described below. Risk Frontiers’ internal flood data collection and handling is used to supplement NFID where required. Catchment correlations are incorporated using over 100 years of historical rain gauge data. For the vulnerability a semi-empirical approach has been used, using a combination of empirical derived vulnerability curves from engineering studies and insurance claims data.
In recent years, Australia has experienced a number of severe tropical cyclone landfalls with devastating consequences. According to the Insurance Council of Australia, 3 of the top 10 most costly natural disasters were tropical cyclones, including cyclone Debbie (2017), cyclone Yasi (2011) and cyclone Tracy (1974) each resulting in multi-billion-dollar insured losses. In the context of climate change, tropical cyclones will continue to threaten Australian communities. Warming ocean temperatures will increase the severity of cyclones and extend their path further south, where larger Australian coastal communities are located.
Risk Frontiers and Willis Re Australia developed the National Flood Information Database (NFID) for the ICA, covering 13.4 million addresses with detailed flood risk data, including Flood Exclusion Zones for lower-risk areas. FloodAUS uses this dataset as its hazard basis.
Regional rainfall patterns mean flooding between catchments is interdependent. FloodAUS uses cross-catchment correlations to estimate the probability and magnitude of flooding in one catchment based on another within a one-week window.
Risk Frontiers offers a suite of flood vulnerability functions to assess damage from riverine flood events. These detailed curves, based on empirical data and insurance claims, represent insured loss across various business lines, building types, and coverages, including building, contents, and business interruption.
Our CAT loss models, trusted by leading insurers and financial institutions, provide cutting-edge probabilistic assessments of financial risks from extreme events. Integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data, these models offer a robust foundation for informed decision-making.
Since 2019, Risk Frontiers has pioneered climate-enabled CAT models, allowing clients to project future risks under various emissions scenarios with scientifically validated methodologies. Backed by over 30 years of research and partnerships with regulatory bodies, our models are a key tool in climate risk resilience and financial planning.
FloodAUS can assist both insurance and reinsurance companies in setting premiums for insurance and re-insurance policies associated with riverine floods. It can also be used to find accumulations of excessive risk.
FloodAUS has found uses for long term planning and resource allocation for emergency management and emergency response organisations.
Because FloodAUS output can give economic loss estimates it provides a useful tool to government for informing policy settings as well as directing finite resources to areas that will have the most benefit.
GNAF point-address level
Location Address Level
50,000 years of stochastic flood data derived from NFID and Risk Frontiers’ own aggregation and acquisition of definitive flood data
Residential / Commercial / Industrial
Residential ALE / Commercial BI / Industrial BI
All properties on mainland Australia and Tasmania. Utilises G-NAF.
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In the spirit of reconciliation, Risk Frontiers acknowledges the Traditional Custodians of the land throughout Australia and their deep connections to land, sea, and community. We pay our respects to their Elders, past and present, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples today.
