Using advanced analytics and new data sources to answer critical questions for insurers, banks, and governments.
Severe thunderstorms are a frequent and harmful natural disaster in Australia, causing significant damage. Since 1985, on average, more than half of the annual reported industry insured losses have been caused by severe thunderstorm events. Although large outbreaks can result in insured losses exceeding AUD 25 million, smaller events with lower losses can still impact a company’s portfolio on an aggregate basis or a more rural portfolio on an occurrence basis.
Risk Frontiers’ HailAUS model integrates statistical and physical modeling with the latest meteorological research and claims data to accurately capture severe thunderstorms with potential for causing loss across Australia. The model addresses reporting biases and climate change trends through a novel detrending approach that leverages radar and observation data.
The model also takes into account that a single storm can cause varying damage to properties within a portfolio, with updates to building codes impacting the vulnerability of structures. The component-based vulnerability framework of the model considers primary and secondary building characteristics, as well as every type of roof damage, to provide a location-level view of the risk.
The extensive validation of each component of the model against billions of dollars of claims data, damage surveys, engineering research, historical events, and industry experience ensures that an accurate view of the risk can be obtained to prepare for the next severe thunderstorm before it occurs.
HailAUS 8.0 uses a storm proxy derived from ERA5 and calibrated with radar derived analyses of frequency from recent literature.
The model is built upon the Bureau of Meteorology’s radar network, internal archives of historical hazard events and our PerilAUS database, along with reanalysis climate variables. Hail footprints are elliptical with concentric levels of estimated hail size, with damage estimates calculated for each exposure within this ellipse.
The motor vulnerability component accounts for the density of cars based on time of year, time of day, and the nature of the location (e.g., car parks for airports, universities, or major shopping centres) for loss estimation.
In recent years, Australia has experienced a number of severe tropical cyclone landfalls with devastating consequences. According to the Insurance Council of Australia, 3 of the top 10 most costly natural disasters were tropical cyclones, including cyclone Debbie (2017), cyclone Yasi (2011) and cyclone Tracy (1974) each resulting in multi-billion-dollar insured losses. In the context of climate change, tropical cyclones will continue to threaten Australian communities. Warming ocean temperatures will increase the severity of cyclones and extend their path further south, where larger Australian coastal communities are located.
Updated relationships between gridded climate products and observed storm frequency. Also using latest resolution analysis products. Improved regional expression of hail frequency. Unified dataset allows for correlation between atmospheric perils and projection of hail risk into multiple future scenarios.
HailAUS 8.0 stochastic storm footprints can represent real storms that are more extensive and complex than a single elliptical swath. Storms may now have multiple footprints of varying size, in accordance with radar observation.
In the event of a significant storm, Risk Frontiers can retrieve radar imagery and estimate potential losses within 48 hours. The same technique can be used to estimate the impact from historic storm scenarios.
Our CAT loss models, trusted by leading insurers and financial institutions, provide cutting-edge probabilistic assessments of financial risks from extreme events. Integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data, these models offer a robust foundation for informed decision-making.
Since 2019, Risk Frontiers has pioneered climate-enabled CAT models, allowing clients to project future risks under various emissions scenarios with scientifically validated methodologies. Backed by over 30 years of research and partnerships with regulatory bodies, our models are a key tool in climate risk resilience and financial planning.
HailAUS can assist insurance and reinsurance companies in setting premiums for insurance and re-insurance policies associated with hailsone damage associted with Severe Convective Storms.
Because the hazard component of HailAUS covers all of Australia, the model can be used for bespoke analysis of hail risk to different crop types given seasonal susceptibility data.
Emergency management organisations can use the tool to inform resource allocation based on likely impacted regions.
Gridless, point location level
Location Address Level
50,000 year stochastic catalogue
Residential / Commercial / Industrial / Motor
Residential ALE / Commercial / Industrial
National coverage of mainland Australia and Tasmania.
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In the spirit of reconciliation, Risk Frontiers acknowledges the Traditional Custodians of the land throughout Australia and their deep connections to land, sea, and community. We pay our respects to their Elders, past and present, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples today.
