Note: Use this section to paint the picture. How frequent are hailstorms in Australia? What sort of impact do they have? What financial impact?
The future risk of fires in Australia is increasing due to climate change. The risk of fire is increased in ‘high fire weather’, which is a combination of low rainfall and humidity, and high temperatures and wind speeds. Climate change is exacerbating catastrophic bushfire conditions, and the number of ‘very high’ or ‘extreme’ fire days could increase by 4-25%, and 15-70% by 2050.
The potential loss from fires in Australia is also increasing. The Black Summer fires of 2019–20 destroyed an area approximately the size of the UK, and caused billions of dollars in damage. Modelling suggests that, in line with the UN report, wildfires of this ilk will ignite with increasing frequency as climate change unfolds.
Risk Frontiers is implementing a catastrophe loss modelling solution to enable business and community leaders to better understand their exposure to future climate scenarios. In FireAUS, the ignition model explicitly relies on weather variables that are also available through global and regional climate models. As such, the same ignition model can be used to estimate the changes in fire ignition frequency for a given future emission scenario. We presently offer a future view of fire risk in Australia for 2030s, 2050s and 2090s, under a low, middle and high-emissions scenarios.
Who can utilise FireAUS?
Insurers/ReInsurers
Banks
Governments
FireAUS Model Overview
The latest release of FireAUS, covering bushfire and now grassfire risk across Australia, represents another leap in the quantification of risk at the location and portfolio level. Building on our recognised machine learning capability, peer reviewed research and on the ground post-event surveys, FireAUS 3.0 has national coverage at the individual address level.
FireAUS 3.0 takes advantage of the intersection of two cutting edge technologies: MODIS satellite data and machine learning. With its sweeping 2,330-km-wide viewing field, MODIS sees every point on our world every 1-2 days across multiple spectral bands. Consequently, MODIS tracks a wider array of the earth’s vital climate systems. The MODIS burnt area products are validated against our database of 115 years fire damage data, ensuring reliable machine learning datasets.
Hazard Resolution | Variable |
Exposure Resolution | Location Address Level |
Event Catalogue | 50,000 years, 90 million storms |
Line of Business | Residential|Commercial|Industrial|Motor |
Business Interruption | Commercial|Industrial |
Fire Ignition and Propagation Parameters | Location, 9 climate variables, 3 population-based variables, 5 topographic variables, 3 environmental variables, railway density, forest fire danger index (FFDI) |
Coverage | All Properties on mainland Australia and Tasmania. 100% GNAF |
HailAUS Features
Post-Event Response Capabilities
Location Level Intelligence
'Third unique feature???'
Learn More About FireAUS
Get the opportunity to speak with the team member who developed the model????????????????????????????????
Briefing Notes
Read our latest research
Delve into the insightful articles on climate risk and resilience from the team of risk scientists at Risk Frontiers.
Amplification of Relative Sea Level Rise by Land Subsidence
Amplification of Relative Sea Level Rise by Land Subsidence Paul Somerville and Maxime Marin, Risk Frontiers Global mean sea level (GMSL) is currently measured from
Accelerating Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting and Sea Level Rise
Accelerating Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting and Sea Level Rise Paul Somerville and Maxime Marin, Risk Frontiers The Greenland ice sheet is a relic
Tropical Cyclone Ilsa: How Western Australia dodged the bullet
Tropical Cyclone Ilsa: How Western Australia dodged the bullet Maxime Marin, Lucinda Coates. Risk Frontiers Following the record-breaking Tropical Cyclone (TC) Freddy (RF, 2023), which