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FireAUS: Detailed Australian Bushfire & Grassfire Loss Model

Note: Use this section to paint the picture. How frequent are hailstorms in Australia? What sort of impact do they have? What financial impact?

The future risk of fires in Australia is increasing due to climate change. The risk of fire is increased in ‘high fire weather’, which is a combination of low rainfall and humidity, and high temperatures and wind speeds. Climate change is exacerbating catastrophic bushfire conditions, and the number of ‘very high’ or ‘extreme’ fire days could increase by 4-25%, and 15-70% by 2050.

The potential loss from fires in Australia is also increasing. The Black Summer fires of 2019–20 destroyed an area approximately the size of the UK, and caused billions of dollars in damage. Modelling suggests that, in line with the UN report, wildfires of this ilk will ignite with increasing frequency as climate change unfolds.

Risk Frontiers is implementing a catastrophe loss modelling solution to enable business and community leaders to better understand their exposure to future climate scenarios. In FireAUS, the ignition model explicitly relies on weather variables that are also available through global and regional climate models. As such, the same ignition model can be used to estimate the changes in fire ignition frequency for a given future emission scenario. We presently offer a future view of fire risk in Australia for 2030s, 2050s and 2090s, under a low, middle and high-emissions scenarios.

FireAUS Model Overview

The latest release of FireAUS, covering bushfire and now grassfire risk across Australia, represents another leap in the quantification of risk at the location and portfolio level. Building on our recognised machine learning capability, peer reviewed research and on the ground post-event surveys, FireAUS 3.0 has national coverage at the individual address level.

FireAUS 3.0 takes advantage of the intersection of two cutting edge technologies: MODIS satellite data and machine learning. With its sweeping 2,330-km-wide viewing field, MODIS sees every point on our world every 1-2 days across multiple spectral bands. Consequently, MODIS tracks a wider array of the earth’s vital climate systems. The MODIS burnt area products are validated against our database of 115 years fire damage data, ensuring reliable machine learning datasets.

HailAUS Features

Post-Event Response Capabilities

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Location Level Intelligence

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'Third unique feature???'

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Who can utilise FireAUS?

Insurers/ReInsurers

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Banks

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Governments

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FireAUS Technical Specifications???

Hazard Resolution

Variable

Exposure Resolution

Location Address Level

Event Catalogue

50,000 years, 90 million storms

Line of Business

Residential|Commercial|Industrial|Motor

Business Interruption

Commercial|Industrial

Fire Ignition and Propagation Parameters

Location, 9 climate variables, 3 population-based variables, 5 topographic variables, 3 environmental variables, railway density, forest fire danger index (FFDI)

Coverage

All Properties on mainland Australia and Tasmania.
100% GNAF

Learn More About FireAUS

Get the opportunity to speak with the team member who developed the model????????????????????????????????


    Briefing Notes

    Read our latest research

    Delve into the insightful articles on climate risk and resilience from the team of risk scientists at Risk Frontiers. 

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