Note: Use this section to paint the picture. How frequent are hailstorms in Australia? What sort of impact do they have? What financial impact?
The future risk of fires in Australia is increasing due to climate change. The risk of fire is increased in ‘high fire weather’, which is a combination of low rainfall and humidity, and high temperatures and wind speeds. Climate change is exacerbating catastrophic bushfire conditions, and the number of ‘very high’ or ‘extreme’ fire days could increase by 4-25%, and 15-70% by 2050.
The potential loss from fires in Australia is also increasing. The Black Summer fires of 2019–20 destroyed an area approximately the size of the UK, and caused billions of dollars in damage. Modelling suggests that, in line with the UN report, wildfires of this ilk will ignite with increasing frequency as climate change unfolds.
Risk Frontiers is implementing a catastrophe loss modelling solution to enable business and community leaders to better understand their exposure to future climate scenarios. In FireAUS, the ignition model explicitly relies on weather variables that are also available through global and regional climate models. As such, the same ignition model can be used to estimate the changes in fire ignition frequency for a given future emission scenario. We presently offer a future view of fire risk in Australia for 2030s, 2050s and 2090s, under a low, middle and high-emissions scenarios.
FireAUS Model Overview
The latest release of FireAUS, covering bushfire and now grassfire risk across Australia, represents another leap in the quantification of risk at the location and portfolio level. Building on our recognised machine learning capability, peer reviewed research and on the ground post-event surveys, FireAUS 3.0 has national coverage at the individual address level.
FireAUS 3.0 takes advantage of the intersection of two cutting edge technologies: MODIS satellite data and machine learning. With its sweeping 2,330-km-wide viewing field, MODIS sees every point on our world every 1-2 days across multiple spectral bands. Consequently, MODIS tracks a wider array of the earth’s vital climate systems. The MODIS burnt area products are validated against our database of 115 years fire damage data, ensuring reliable machine learning datasets.
HailAUS Features
Post-Event Response Capabilities

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Location Level Intelligence

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'Third unique feature???'

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Who can utilise FireAUS?
Insurers/ReInsurers
Banks
Governments
FireAUS Technical Specifications???
Hazard Resolution | Variable |
Exposure Resolution | Location Address Level |
Event Catalogue | 50,000 years, 90 million storms |
Line of Business | Residential|Commercial|Industrial|Motor |
Business Interruption | Commercial|Industrial |
Fire Ignition and Propagation Parameters | Location, 9 climate variables, 3 population-based variables, 5 topographic variables, 3 environmental variables, railway density, forest fire danger index (FFDI) |
Coverage | All Properties on mainland Australia and Tasmania. 100% GNAF |

Learn More About FireAUS
Get the opportunity to speak with the team member who developed the model????????????????????????????????
Briefing Notes
Read our latest research
Delve into the insightful articles on climate risk and resilience from the team of risk scientists at Risk Frontiers.
The Earth’s Greatest Natural Disaster
The rocks of the earth and moon have such similar mineral composition that it is generally thought that the moon was created in the aftermath of a giant impact between Earth and a smaller planet about the size of Mars named Theia. However, no trace of Theia has ever been discovered in the asteroid belt or in meteorites. Wang et al. (2016) showed that a low-energy impact cannot explain small isotopic differences between lunar and terrestrial rocks; instead, a much more violent impact is needed to vaporise Theia and most of the proto-Earth, expanding to form an enormous superfluid disk out of which the Moon eventually crystallized.
An Eventful Start to the Fire Season on the East Coast
An Eventful Start to the Fire Season on the East Coast Tahiry Rabehaja and Stuart Browning The 2023-2024 bushfire season has arrived early for southeast
The Great 1923 Kanto (Tokyo) Earthquake: a Fateful Forecast
The Great 1923 Kanto (Tokyo) Earthquake: a Fateful Forecast Paul Somerville Professor Omori and Associate Professor Imamura of Tokyo University In 1899, in anticipation of