FireAUS: Detailed Australian Bushfire & Grassfire Loss Model

Note: Use this section to paint the picture. How frequent are hailstorms in Australia? What sort of impact do they have? What financial impact?

The future risk of fires in Australia is increasing due to climate change. The risk of fire is increased in ‘high fire weather’, which is a combination of low rainfall and humidity, and high temperatures and wind speeds. Climate change is exacerbating catastrophic bushfire conditions, and the number of ‘very high’ or ‘extreme’ fire days could increase by 4-25%, and 15-70% by 2050.

The potential loss from fires in Australia is also increasing. The Black Summer fires of 2019–20 destroyed an area approximately the size of the UK, and caused billions of dollars in damage. Modelling suggests that, in line with the UN report, wildfires of this ilk will ignite with increasing frequency as climate change unfolds.

Risk Frontiers is implementing a catastrophe loss modelling solution to enable business and community leaders to better understand their exposure to future climate scenarios. In FireAUS, the ignition model explicitly relies on weather variables that are also available through global and regional climate models. As such, the same ignition model can be used to estimate the changes in fire ignition frequency for a given future emission scenario. We presently offer a future view of fire risk in Australia for 2030s, 2050s and 2090s, under a low, middle and high-emissions scenarios.