earthquake loss modelling


As the tragedy seen in Christchurch in 2011 showed, earthquakes in New Zealand have the potential to cause significant loss of life and damage to buildings. While less frequent, earthquakes in Australia can also cause damage and loss.

Risk Frontiers has strong experience in modelling losses arising from such natural hazards with the QuakeNZ2 model able to calculate building and contents losses for residential portfolios across a wide range of NZ building construction types and vintages. Risk Frontiers also produces an Australian equivalent, QuakeAUS5.

QuakeNZ2 is the first post-Christchurch model to implement the findings from the 2010-2012 Canterbury sequence. It implements the earthquake forecast model for crustal, slab and subduction interface earthquakes with the model’s predictions of the Canterbury earthquake sequence ground motions showing remarkable accuracy.

Liquefaction damage is also estimated using an efficient screening approach. The financial module can take into account NZ specific requirements such as the Earthquake Commission deductibles and the calculation of regulatory probable maximum losses.

QuakeAUS employs an earthquake forecast model derived from spatial smoothed historical seismicity. It uses the first generally applicable ground motion prediction models for Australia, one for the cratonic regions of the western and central part of Australia and the other for all the non-cratonic regions (which span all of Australia’s state capital cities including Perth).

QuakeAUS uses the first generally applicable ground motion prediction models for Australia. The models’ prediction of ground motions recorded from the magnitude 6.0 Petermann Range earthquake in June 2016, was much more accurate than that of other models.

The QuakeAUS5 model can handle residential, commercial and industrial portfolios and calculates building, contents and business interruption losses.

Please contact us for further information on how Risk Frontiers can help with risk modelling of earthquakes. Email: Telephone: +61 2 8459 9770.