The Early January 2026 Victorian Grassfires and Bushfires
In early January 2026, Victoria experienced a major bushfire crisis that resulted in one confirmed death, over 400,000 hectares burnt, and at least 300 homes destroyed or significantly damaged across the state amid record heat and extreme fire conditions. A State of Disaster was declared to coordinate emergency response and evacuations.
Weather
During early January 2026, Victoria experienced some of the most dangerous fire weather conditions seen since the 2019-20 Black Summer fires, driven by a combination of prolonged heat, dry landscapes and extreme winds. The AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook had already flagged an increased risk across most of the state, with soil moisture critically low after extended dry conditions across Victoria and NSW. A severe heatwave brought temperatures well into the 40s for consecutive days. Forecast strong winds, gusting above 100 kilometres per hour in parts of western Victoria led to “catastrophic” fire danger ratings, total fire bans across Victoria and parts of New South Wales, and a State of Disaster being declared for 18 local government areas. The risk was further heightened by the potential for thunderstorms and dry lightning, increasing the likelihood of new ignitions.
Fires first broke out on 5th January 2026, including a major fire at Mt Lawson State Park (the Walwa fire) on the NSW–Victoria border and the first significant Longwood fire in central Victoria. The fires intensified and spread rapidly over the following days, with Friday 9th January emerging as the most dangerous day. Strengthening winds ahead of a gusty cool change from the west caused fires to become strongly wind-driven, fast-moving and impossible to control. Fires burned rapidly through rural landscapes, generating pyrocumulus and later pyrocumulonimbus clouds, effectively creating their own thunderstorms and further destabilising conditions. Unlike the 2019–20 Black Summer fires, which were dominated by intense canopy burning in drought-stricken forests, the 2026 fires were largely grassland fires, fuelled by abundant fine fuels following several wet years. While grassfires tend to be less intense, they can spread extremely quickly — up to 25 kilometres per hour in open areas — making fires highly unpredictable and uncontrollable under extreme heat and wind conditions experienced that day [1]. Official fire authorities and emergency services leaders have since warned that the peak fire season is still to come, with even more extreme conditions possible later in January and February.
The various fires and their impacts
Collectively, the fires have burned over 400,000ha and damaged or destroyed almost 900 structures across Victoria as of 16/01/2026. Of those, more than 300 homes were destroyed or significantly damaged, and more than 500 outbuildings have been damaged or destroyed. The fire also caused one known human fatality and killed over 23,000 head of sheep and cattle [2].
The following footprint analyses were performed by Risk Frontiers using the Normalised Burn Ration from pre- and post-fire Sentinel-2 imageries [4], combined with the near real-time fire hotspot products J1 VIIRS, J2 VIIRS and SUOMI VIIRS from FIRMS [3].
The Longwood Bushfire
The Longwood fire is one of the largest and most destructive fires that has occurred in Victoria during this fire season. It burned over 130,000ha and claimed at least one life. The fire started on January 7th and is reported by various media to have originated from a trailer travelling along the Hume Highway. This is not surprising as a large proportion of bushfires and grassfires occurring in Australia are due to human activity. This proportion increases in populated areas including that part of central Victoria, while natural conditions such as dry lightning are more common in the northern regions of the country.
By January 9th, more than 100,000ha had already burned, showing the speed at which the fire spread as the blaze was fanned by strong northwesterly winds (Figure 2). Edges of the footprint continued burning for more than a week after the initial ignition.
At the time of writing this article, more than 173 homes and 243 outbuildings had been lost to this fire, making it responsible for more than half of the total number of homes lost to these fires.
A cattle farmer’s remains were found in Terip Terip, near Euroa, in the Longwood fire. He was reportedly attempting to defend his 101-hectare property as the blaze intensified. His body was found about 100m from his vehicle, which is believed to have run off the road amid the severe fire conditions.
In Risk Frontiers’ Analysis of this fire, there are more than 1400 distinct GNAF points within this footprint, illustrating its widespread impact and geographical coverage of populated area (Figure 4).
Figure 2 . The Longwood fire was a fast-moving fire that started on the Hume Highway (red line). (Source: NASA-
FIRMS [3] data analysed by Risk Frontiers)
The Walwa Bushire
According to the FIRMS data [3], this fire started on January 5th. It burned over 110,000ha and was exacerbated by catastrophic fire weather and fuel type that favoured pyrocumulonimbus cloud formation. The fire created its own weather system that generated thunderstorms and lightning ahead of the moving fire front, making it harder to suppress and unpredictable.
The Walwa fire burned over 100,000ha, impacted nine homes, and razed more than 10,000ha of pine plantation.
Figure 3. The Walwa bushfire created its own weather. (Source: NASA-FIRMS [3] data analysed by Risk Frontiers)
Other blazes
Many other bushfires and grassfires have burned across Victora during January 2026. The Harcourt fire destroyed around 54 houses. Notable grassfires include the Natimuk fire which has destroyed around 17 homes. Three other large grassfires occurred in Streatham, Yarroweyah and Mt Mercer which were recorded to have destroyed 15, 13 and one homes respectively. Finally, as of January 19th 2026, the Dargo and Otways bushfires burned through remote forests and destroyed one home each. The northern Otways fire footprint is still expanding and has caused further damage not accounted for in this report.
Figure 4.The various bushfires and grassfires that impacted communities in Victoria. The shaded areas represent the
approximate fire footprints derived from Sentinel-2 and FIRMS imageries; the points represent distinct GNAF points
and the labelled colour shows the probability of destruction from FireAUS 4.0. (Source: Risk Frontiers)
Figure 4 (continued). The various bushfires and grassfires that impacted communities in Victoria. The shaded areas
represent the approximate fire footprints derived from Sentinel-2 and FIRMS imageries; the points represent distinct
GNAF points and the labelled colour shows the probability of destruction from FireAUS 4.0. (Source: Risk Frontiers)
Response
On January 10th 2026, a State of Disaster was declared to enable mandatory evacuations and resource coordination. There have been multiple emergency warnings and total fire bans across many districts. Hundreds of firefighters and aircraft were involved in suppression, with cooler conditions allowing some controlled burning to reduce risk.
The Victorian and federal governments announced funding and relief programs, including immediate hardship payments and support for uninsured households. A state-wide Bushfire Appeal has been launched to support affected families and community recovery efforts.
Southeast Australia is currently approaching its peak bushfire and grassfire season. Some large fires continue to spread, and more impactful fires may be expected.
