Bill McKibben’s Vision: The Energy Future Is Already Here
For decades, renewable energy existed on the fringe, as a topic of interest to environmentalists, climate scientists, and early adopters who had more zeal than financial resources. It was a novelty, an alternative to the fossil-fueled industry that powered Western economies for two centuries. The term “alternative” suggested renewable energy was not a serious contender.
However, within a few decades, renewable energy has been transformed from a peripheral ideal to a mainstream economic reality. As documented in a recent New Yorker article drawn from Bill McKibben’s forthcoming book, Here Comes the Sun: A Last Chance for the Climate and a Fresh Chance for Civilization (August 2025), this transformation is remarkable given the ineffectiveness of international efforts to combat climate change over the past three decades. Solar, wind, and battery storage have become the most cost-efficient, fastest-growing power sources on Earth.
While McKibben’s book is based on evidence, it conveys an optimistic view of events that sees a new Industrial Revolution that this time is clean, decentralized, and increasingly democratic, and potentially poised to avoid the worst effects of climate change. The following paragraphs summarise McKibben’s viewpoints, which are summarised in the US NPR radio program Marketplace’s interview with him on 11 August 2025.
The Solar Surge in the United States
It took nearly seventy years from the invention of the photovoltaic cell in 1954 to reach the first terawatt of installed solar power by 2022. The second terawatt was installed in 2024, and the third is expected by 2026. Solar power is now being added at a rate of one gigawatt (equivalent to a coal plant) every fifteen hours. Wind power, which similarly depends on nature, is growing at a similar rate.
Renewables met 96% of new electricity demand globally and 93% in the United States in the past year. In March 2025, for the first time, fossil fuels generated less than half of all U.S. electricity. In May 2025, California, which has the fourth-largest economy in the world, renewable sources produced 158% of its power demand, and they delivered 82% of electricity consumed over the entire day for the month of May.
The rise of energy storage is undergoing similar growth. Battery deployment has surged 76% this year alone. These systems often act as California’s overnight power source, stabilizing the grid when sunlight fades or wind slows. California now uses 40% less natural gas than it did just last year.
Even Texas, a centre of the oil and gas industry, is rapidly moving to renewable energy. In March 2025, it set records for solar, wind, and battery output. During a May heatwave, over a quarter of its power came from renewables. By adding 10,000 megawatts of clean capacity, Texas reduced emergency blackout risk from 16% last year to less than 1% this year.
The Global Solar Surge
The rate of change in China is even greater than that in the United States. More than half the world’s renewables and batteries are now installed in China. In May alone, China added 93 gigawatts of solar, equivalent to one gigawatt every eight hours. Carbon emissions dropped in the first quarter of 2025, with electricity-linked emissions falling nearly 6% as solar and wind displaced coal. Nearly half of all vehicles sold in China this year were electric or hybrid cars.
Similar changes are occurring around the world. South America, once planning 15 new coal plants, now plans none. India’s solar output surged so rapidly in early 2025 that coal consumption plateaued while natural gas use fell by a quarter. Even in Poland, long reliant on coal, solar outstripped coal in May. This is occurring because solar is now the cheapest, fastest path to power. China’s relentless innovation has driven battery costs down by 95% in 15 years. In just the first half of 2024, the United States alone added 4 gigawatts of storage. A Chinese utility’s latest bidding round cut prices by another 30%. Grid-scale batteries now power entire cities for hours. Even Gulf states have participated, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE all building massive solar fields, with a goal of 50% of electricity from solar by 2050. In Pakistan, widespread solar adoption is displacing national grid demand, with panels laid flat on the earth without costly mounts.
These changes have occurred much more quickly than forecast. In 2009, the International Energy Agency predicted 244 gigawatts of solar by 2030, a benchmark that was reached by 2015. Their forecasts over the last decade underestimated actual growth by an average of 235%.
Overcoming Perceived Limitations
The limits on solar power that were once thought to be fatal flaws now seem manageable. The price of Lithium, long considered as a bottleneck, has dropped even as demand rises because new sources have been discovered and recycling systems are maturing. A 2023 Energy Transitions Commission report found that the costs of all materials needed to reach net zero by 2050 amount to less than the cost of coal burned in a single year. Battery technology is becoming more efficient, using less lithium and silver and recovering more materials from recycling.
Land has also become more abundant than had been assumed, by the use of roof tops and parking lots and reclaiming farmland currently used for ethanol. A single acre of solar panels produces as much energy as 100 acres of corn-based ethanol. Converting less than half of United States ethanol fields could decarbonize the entire grid by 2050.
Policy vs. Physics
The obstacles now are not technical, they are political. In the United States, the Biden Administration took steps to promote renewable energy, but the Trump Administration is actively trying to reverse course, switching the Biden tax incentives from renewables to coal and gas, and Biden penalties from coal and gas to renewables. Ironically, such obstruction may accelerate the global transition, with some nations viewing renewables not just as climate solutions, but hedges against geopolitical volatility. A 2023 global poll found that 68% of people support solar energy, which is five times more than support fossil fuels.
Meanwhile back in Australia
CSIRO have just released their 2024-25 GenCost report (Graham et al., 2025) which, for the seventh year in a row, found renewables remain the lowest-cost new-build electricity generation technology. The report is produced annually in collaboration with the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and projects the cost of electricity generation and storage for a wide range of technologies out to the year 2050. The cost of large-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) and batteries have continued to fall, while the cost of onshore wind and gas turbines have increased. Nuclear small modular reactors were also evaluated and are the costliest option.
As Australia’s existing coal fired power plants hit retirement age, they will be replaced by a mix of technologies, because no single option can deliver all the capabilities required for a reliable, secure and flexible supply. Irrespective of carbon emission, coal is no longer the cheapest energy source, meaning political ideologies against climate action can no longer be used as an excuse to delay the energy transition.
The Future Is Diffuse, Not Centralized
Changes in industrial infrastructure have accompanied this transition to renewable energy. Fossil fuels are scarce, located in select pockets, and easy to monopolize, but solar and wind energy are everywhere. Decentralized power doesn’t just decarbonize economies, it redistributes agency by freeing individuals, communities, and nations from historical dependencies. This is fostering a new Industrial Revolution that this time is clean, decentralized, and increasingly democratic.
References
Graham, P., Hayward, J. and Foster J. 2025, GenCost 2024-25: Final report, CSIRO, Australia. https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/News/2025/July/2024-25-GenCost-Final-Report
McKibben, Bill (2025). 4.6 billion years on, the sun is having a moment. https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/46-billion-years-on-the-sun-is-having-a-moment.
McKibben, Bill (2025). Here Comes the Sun; A Last Chance for the Climate and a Fresh Chance for Civilization. https://wwnorton.com/books/Here-Comes-the-Sun/
NPR (2025). https://www.marketplace.org/episode/2025/07/11/burning-questions-a-conversation-with-bill-mckibben-about-his-new-book-on-solar-power
