CyclAUS is Risk Frontiers' stochastic Australian tropical cyclone wind loss estimation model. The model allows users to:

• Quantify event loss as a function of exceedance probability
• Price tropical cyclone risk
• Manage a portfolio and identify areas of accumulation

CyclAUS accepts residential building and content portfolio data at CRESTA zone or postcode level. In either case, insured assets are disaggregated into Census Collection Districts (CCDs) in proportion to the underlying Census data. All wind speed and damage calculations are made at the CCD level. CCDs are as small as 175m × 175m in densely populated areas. CyclAUS also accepts a user-specified average deductible.

The model extends over regions north of latitude 30 o S, and includes the major settlements of Brisbane , Gold Coast, Nambour, Bundaberg, Gladstone , Rockhampton, Mackay, Townsville, Cairns , Darwin , Port Hedland and Broome.

Key features of CyclAUS include:

• Updated event set of Australian tropical cyclone activity
• Sophisticated roughness and topographic wind adjustment factors
• Central pressure decay model developed specifically for Australia
• Australian building vulnerability based on building location and age (pre-and post-1980 construction)
• Uncertainties associated with key variables such as central pressure and building vulnerability

CyclAUS contains 4 modules:

• Hazard – determines cyclone path, size, and intensity
• Exposure – describes the spatial distribution of policies assigning the value at risk (total sum insured) and proportions of pre- and post-1980 construction to the centroid of each CCD
• Vulnerability – damage functions describing the loss ratio (expected loss as a proportion of the total sum insured) as a function of local 3-second peak gust speeds at 10m height, construction age, and CCD centroid location
• Analysis – transforms losses into useful formats and statistics

CyclAUS produces per event and annual aggregate losses based on a 100,000-year simulation. Output includes:

• A comprehensive statistics summary
• Annual Exceedance Probability and Average Recurrence Interval plots
• Event loss lists by postcode and CRESTA zone
• Event loss lists by building and contents

CyclAUS is currently being extended to model commercial and industrial portfolios.

For further information contact Ryan Crompton via e-mail: rcrompto@els.mq.edu.au or telephone: 61 2 9850 9683